Kenya confirms withdrawal of troops from Somalia by end of 2024 despite security concerns

Kenya’s Defence Ministry has affirmed its commitment to withdraw its remaining troops from Somalia, operating under the African Union Transitional Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), by the conclusion of 2024.

Defence Cabinet Secretary Aden Duale confirmed this planned withdrawal to the Senate, stating, “The last troops are expected to leave Somalia on 31 December 2024, as per the AU and UN Security Council resolution and plan.”

This confirmation comes despite a recent delay in the scheduled drawdown, prompted by Somalia’s request to halt the withdrawal of African Union peacekeepers for a three-month period.

Currently, there are more than 4,000 Kenyan troops stationed in Somalia under the ATMIS mission, alongside forces from Uganda, Ethiopia, Burundi, and Djibouti.

ATMIS, which succeeded the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in April 2022, is a United Nations-mandated mission that began as a peacekeeping force in 2007. Initially focused on countering the al-Qaeda-affiliated group al-Shabaab, its mandate expanded over the years to include protecting Somalia’s transitional government, supporting electoral processes, and delivering humanitarian aid. By mid-2017, it had become the world’s largest peacekeeping operation, effectively pushing back against al-Shabaab and paving the way for a planned drawdown.

In April 2022, the AU rebranded the mission as ATMIS, with a similar mandate but a renewed goal to conclude operations in Somalia by the end of 2024 and transfer control to the Somali government. However, despite progress against al-Shabaab, the Islamist insurgency continues to pose a significant threat, frequently spilling over into Kenya.

The security situation in Kenya remains fragile, as evidenced by the postponement of the reopening of the Kenyan-Somali border, which had been closed since 2011. A series of al-Shabaab attacks near the border, including the killing of police officers in Garissa and a gruesome attack in Lamu, derailed plans for the border’s reopening.

The threat from al-Shabaab has been on the rise, with over 90 attacks involving the group reported between June and early August in the border area. Experts warn that the ATMIS drawdown, coupled with Somali counter-insurgency efforts, is contributing to al-Shabaab’s resurgence, leading to attacks on military bases handed over by ATMIS to Somali forces. As Somali forces push back against insurgents, some are fleeing toward the Kenyan border.

Al-Shabaab has a history of retaliating violently against Kenya since the deployment of Kenyan Defence Forces to Somalia in 2011. The deadliest attack occurred in 2015 at Garissa University, resulting in the deaths of 148 students.

In response to the increased threat, Kenya has established 14 operating bases along the Kenya-Somalia border and pledged to enhance the capabilities of its military and police forces.

However, with the planned departure of ATMIS at the end of the following year, uncertainties persist about the state of security in Somalia and the wider region. While Cabinet Secretary Duale reaffirmed Kenya’s commitment to the AU’s withdrawal plan, others, including Ruto, have indicated a willingness to extend their presence to prevent al-Shabaab’s resurgence.