Egypt's presidential race: Sisi set for 3rd term amid economic turmoil

In the run-up to Egypt’s presidential election, all signs point to a familiar outcome as incumbent Abdel Fattah al-Sisi aims for a third term, despite mounting discontent fueled by the nation’s worst economic crisis.

Scheduled from Sunday to Tuesday, the election offers four candidates, including the long-standing leader Sisi, who seized power in 2013 after deposing elected President Mohamed Morsi.

The scale of preparations is staggering, with 9,400 polling stations and 15,000 judicial employees working over the three-day voting period.

Results are anticipated on December 18, with a potential second round of voting. However, given Sisi’s historical dominance, skepticism looms, having secured over 96 percent of the vote in both 2014 and 2018.

Initially thought to be a more competitive race, opposition figures challenging the status quo find themselves imprisoned or awaiting trial, underscoring a decade-long crackdown on dissent that places Egypt low on the World Justice Project’s rule of law index.

Beneath the political facade, the focal point for Egyptians remains the deteriorating economy, plunging since early last year.

The currency’s more than 50 percent devaluation since March 2022, soaring inflation nearing 40 percent, and a shrinking private sector exacerbate the challenges.

Notably, Egypt is the second-highest risk, following Ukraine, for a debt crisis, according to Bloomberg analysis, as the International Monetary Fund awaits quarterly reviews after approving a $3 billion loan conditioned on a shift to a flexible exchange rate regime.

Presidential hopeful Hazem Omar pledges to tackle inflation by abolishing VAT on basic foodstuffs, addressing a major concern for voters. Meanwhile, Farid Zahran, representing the Egyptian Social Democratic Party, promises the release of thousands of prisoners of conscience and the abolition of repressive laws.

Analysts, including German-based journalist Hossam el-Hamalawy, argue that Sisi’s anticipated victory stems from his control over state institutions and the security apparatus, eliminating any genuine contenders.

Ezzat Ibrahim of the National Human Rights Council denies this, asserting that labeling the election a “foregone conclusion” undermines Egyptians’ rights.

Yet, the streets tell a different story, adorned with ubiquitous posters supporting the incumbent, while campaign materials for other candidates are scarce.

Amidst domestic challenges, Hamalawy highlights the impact of the Gaza conflict, further straining Egypt’s already fragile economy and potentially reigniting street dissent.

Sisi may see the conflict as an opportunity to leverage international support and alleviate the economic crisis.

As Egypt navigates this pivotal moment, it grapples not only with internal political dynamics but also external pressures that could shape its trajectory in the coming years.