Independent candidates surge ahead as delay fuels rigging allegations in Pakistan's election

Independent candidates associated with the jailed former prime minister Imran Khan have surpassed expectations in the early tallies of Pakistan’s election. The delay in announcing results has intensified accusations of poll rigging, adding an unexpected twist to the electoral landscape.

Despite Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) being barred from participating as a bloc, unofficial tallies from local TV channels reveal that independent candidates, many endorsed by PTI, are leading in numerous constituencies. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) faced criticism for announcing only 13 National Assembly results by 9:00 am, more than 16 hours after polling stations closed.

The English-language Express Tribune newspaper’s headline captures the surprise: “Independents spring surprise, PTI-backed candidates defy odds.”

Political analysts, initially certain about the election outcome, were taken aback. Sarah Khan, an assistant professor of political science at Yale University, noted, “It’s definitely not the foregone conclusion that anybody thought it might be.”

Amid the delay, PTI’s chief organiser, Omar Ayub Khan, expressed confidence that PTI-backed independent candidates could secure a two-thirds majority to form the next federal government.

The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), expected to win the most seats, faced uncertainty. Party spokeswoman Marriyum Aurangzeb expressed hope of securing the crucial province of Punjab for government formation. Meanwhile, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) exceeded expectations, with leader Bilawal Bhutto Zardari describing early results as “very encouraging.”

The delay in results raised concerns, with Michael Kugelman of the Woodrow Wilson International Center suggesting it could create an environment for interference. Allegations of rigging persisted, fueled by a voting day mobile phone network shutdown and concerns over the validity of the results.

As the election commission cited “internet problems” for the delay, questions arose about the impact on financial markets. Ambreen Naz, a businesswoman in Lahore, predicted volatile swings in the stock market and currency exchange rates.

Digital rights activist Usama Khilji highlighted the mobile service blackout, strengthening the perception of election rigging by the “deep state.” PTI’s secretary for information, Roof Hassan, expressed concern about potential result tampering.

Despite security efforts involving over 650,000 personnel, the election witnessed 51 attacks nationwide, claiming a dozen lives. First-time voters like 22-year-old psychology student Haleema Shafiq emphasized the importance of democracy, while concerns lingered about the integrity of the voting process.

The election’s resemblance to past events, with roles reversed, underscores the chequered history of Pakistan’s elections. Bilal Gilani, executive director of polling group Gallup Pakistan, characterized it as a “managed democracy” with military influence.