Global life expectancy plummets by 1.6 years amidst COVID-19 pandemic

In a groundbreaking study by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy has been revealed, indicating a more severe decline than initially anticipated.

The study, led by IHME researcher Austin Schumacher and published in The Lancet journal, unveils a staggering 1.6-year reduction in the average life expectancy of individuals across the globe during the first two years of the pandemic.

This unexpected dip marks a stark reversal in the decades-long upward trajectory of global life expectancy. Schumacher emphasizes that, “For adults worldwide, the Covid-19 pandemic has had a more profound impact than any event seen in half a century, including conflicts and natural disasters.”

Between 2020 and 2021, life expectancy experienced a decline in 84 percent of the 204 countries and territories analyzed, illustrating the devastating potential impacts of new viruses. The researchers estimated a 22 percent rise in the rate of death for men and a 17 percent increase for women over 15 during this critical period.

Mexico City, Peru, and Bolivia emerged as the locations witnessing the most significant drops in life expectancy. However, the IHME’s Global Burden of Disease study brings a glimmer of hope, revealing a reduction of half a million deaths among children under five in 2021 compared to 2019, showcasing a positive trend in long-term child mortality decline.

Despite the setbacks induced by the pandemic, researchers underscore that people still live considerably longer than in previous decades. The average life expectancy at birth has witnessed a remarkable rise of 23 years, from 49 to 72, between 1950 and 2021.

The study also sheds light on the grim toll of the pandemic, attributing 15.9 million excess deaths to COVID-19 during 2020-2021.

This staggering figure, surpassing previous estimates by the World Health Organization, includes deaths directly caused by the virus and those indirectly related to pandemic-related disruptions.

Barbados, New Zealand, and Antigua and Barbuda stand out with the lowest rates of excess deaths, indicating the effectiveness of their isolated island status in mitigating the impact of COVID-19.

In a forward-looking perspective, IHME researcher Hmwe Hmwe Kyu urges the world to focus on addressing health disparities across nations and preparing for future pandemics.

While the study highlights unprecedented social, economic, and political challenges, such as population decline in affluent countries and growth in less wealthy nations, Schumacher emphasizes the need for global cooperation on voluntary emigration to navigate these challenges.